When sales fall and prices rise: Marbella prices—what's really happening?
Property sales around Marbella have dropped by roughly thirty percent. At the same time, prices per square metre have climbed by more than ten. At first glance, these are two numbers from two different markets. In reality, they tell the same story.
The latest data confirm it. According to the Tinsa IMIE index, prices per square metre in Málaga province rose 13.1% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. Over the same period, according to the Registradores de España registry, the number of transactions in the so-called golden triangle—Marbella, Estepona, and Benahavís—fell 30.2% compared to the same quarter in 2025. Two numbers that look like a contradiction, until you understand what lies behind them.
This is not a cooling market. This is a market running out of stock.
Buyers have not disappeared. Demand has not weakened. Supply has disappeared. Fewer properties are reaching the market, fewer owners want to sell, and those who remain on the buying side are competing harder for a smaller pool. Prices go up, the number of transactions goes down. Both at once. That is exactly what the data show.
Why has supply dried up? Several things come together. Finished homes in the places buyers actually want—close to the sea—are becoming scarcer. New developments on the first line are virtually non-existent. And owners who do not need to sell are watching prices rise and simply waiting, counting on an even better moment. The result is that the transactions that do close are settling at strong levels, even though there are fewer of them.
The waiting game
What surprises people most, though, is something else. Almost every week someone tells me they are holding back. Watching the market, waiting for a correction, for the moment when prices finally reflect the drop in sales. It sounds logical. On most markets, that is exactly what would happen.
Except that buyers who applied that logic in 2024 are still waiting. Those from 2025, too. And those who ignored it and bought anyway are calling me about a second property.
Waiting does not always mean a cheaper purchase. Sometimes it simply means buying later, with less choice and a higher price.
Two things for balance
It is worth adding two things, though, to complete the picture. First, the drop in the number of transactions is not a crash, just a return from two exceptionally strong years to a more normal level. Second, with fewer transactions there is more room for negotiation, because each individual purchase now carries more weight and sellers are more willing to discuss terms.
A market tight on supply is not necessarily a market where you cannot buy well. It is a market where you need to know what you are looking for.
And if you were considering a purchase in Marbella today, what would tip your decision: the fear that prices are high, or the risk that in a year the choice will be even smaller?
After a dynamic rebound in 2022, the luxury market on the Costa del Sol has found its rhythm. Growth today is more balanced, predictable, and – most importantly – economically healthy. This is an ideal situation for investors: rising prices without the risk of sudden collapse.
Sources: Tinsa IMIE (prices per square metre, Málaga province) and Registradores de España (number of transactions, golden triangle), data for the first quarter of 2026. This text is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.